Common Mistakes

Getting the Pot Odds wrong on the Flop

On the flop, you can either calculate the probability of improving your hand on the next card or you can calculate the probability on improving on either the turn or the river. Many players use “Out” charts which have the calculations done for you so that you can easily see the odds given a certain number of outs. Calculating the odds is rather straightforward. The mistakes come when players start to make decisions based on the odds with two cards to come. For example, let’s say you have a Gut Shot Draw. The odds of improving on the next card are 11 to 1. The odds of improving on either the turn or river are 5 to 1. Players who always call on the flop when they are getting 5 to 1 pot odds are making a mistake. Let’s take a closer look at this.
Many players forget to include the cost of the turn bet. If you are going to draw to the river with two cards to come, you must include the cost of the turn bet in your calculation.  Imagine after the flop you have a Gut Shot Draw with odds of drawing on the River or before at 5 to 1. It is a $1 $2 game with $5 in the pot. For it to be worth your while proceeding with a further bet in the form of a call you must be able to win $15 at the end of the game this is because you will be staking $1 at the Turn and another $2 at the River - $3 in total. With the probability of winning 5 to 1 you must have the chance to win $15 for it to be worthwhile, how likely are you to get the other players to put $7 dollars in the pot between them to make it up to the $15? Calling on the Flop and Turn but folding on the River however may be quite in order.

To always calculate odds to the River is not the best policy either however. Sometimes it is better after the Flop to bet once more to see the Turn card and then to fold. Taking our example there is $8 in the pot and you need to make a $1 bet. If you were calculating all the way to the River i.e. including the bet after the Flop and the Turn you would still need a pot of $15 for it to be worthwhile. You don't think the other players will contribute $7 to the pot on the Turn and River so you Fold. Suppose however that you only need to put in $1 after the Flop to see the Turn card and the odds of improving are 11 to 1. There is $8 in the pot, so you only need the other players to put in $3 for the small $1 to be worthwhile. These are implied odds. Looked at in this way it is often worth a small bet on the Flop to see the Turn card because of the small investment. Note that the pot needs to be relatively large for this to work but it does illustrate that it is not always wise to calculate all the way to the River at the expense of considering the single card odds calculations after the Flop for the Turn card, also the pot can be raised and the Turn will alter the board changing your outs.  So as a guide it is better to calculate your outs and pot odds stage by stage in Limit Holdem. After the Flop add up your outs and calculate your pot odds including a judgement of how much you think the other players will add to the pot - the implied pot odds. If you don't improve on the Turn run through the same process of adding up your outs based on the new Board Cards and calculate your new implied pot odds. This step by step approach stops you over committing to a pot, which the odds of your winning may change on the Turn card or River.

In all-in situations however, which occur in no-limit poker you should calculate the pot odds based on the two card Turn and River basis. This is because in No-Limit Hold'em if someone bets on the Flop you can go all-in, in which instance calculating all the way to the River makes sense because that is what you are committing yourself to. Theoretically if you are short-stacked this can be the case in Limit Hold'em because you may be effectively all-in on a relatively small bet. Generally you do not need to worry about two card outs in Limit Holdem just stick to single card, step by step calculations.

 

           Playing Too Many Starting Hands

A good starting hand strategy is essential to a good overall poker strategy. Too often poker players will play hands just to be involved in the game. In Texas Hold’em this is particularly true.  Obviously if your opponents play twice as many of their hands than you , you will have the better hand on average when you do play.  Statistically you will tend to have the better kicker and your pairs will not be as susceptible to an over card. The straights and flushes you draw will be of a higher quality than the other poker players straights and flushes. So fewer hands inevitably means better hands.

You can't however only play perfect hands because of the blinds but few players play a too-tight starting hands strategy. Just how many hands you should play cannot be decided just on which Hole cards you are dealt because some hands will be worth playing some of the time but not others, for example if you had a pair of fives you would probably not play it normally but if you were in the late position and six previous players had all contributed in a small non-committed way to the pot your implied odds may look good for the sake of a small bet.  Generally the more players betting at the Flop the better your implied odds will be and you should play more hands in a loose game than a tight one. Similarly, a better hand like a Jack, Queen but in an earlier position with only one previous player limping in may be worth playing because subsequent players will have seen two players limp in ( you and the previous player ) and be less likely to raise. So in a loose game play a FEW more hands than normal.
 

How aggressive or passive a game is should also be considered. If a player raises it not only indicates that they have a strong hand but lowers your pot odds. Play fewer hands if the pot is raised. Ironically the better poker player you become the more hands you could play well but you will play fewer. Experienced players can out play beginners at the Flop, Turn and River to get the most out of their hands. If you are new to the game play extra tight, don't let the sight of great players winning with average hands tempt you into playing too often.
As a rough guide you should be playing on 16% to 24% of your starting hands into the Flop. Below 20% as a beginner more with practice and slightly more again in a loose game from a late position than an early position in a tight game.

Trying to Draw to an Average Hand

It is a mistake to assume that if you draw your hand you will win the pot so calculating pot odds is no guarantee that you will win. For example imagine your Hole cards are Ace King and the Flop is Ten, Nine, Five. Your odds of drawing are 7 to 1 but your opponents may already have a number of pairs or even a straight and would usually beat you.

To recap an out is a card that is not in your hand or on the Board that would give you a winning hand. For example if you had an Ace of Diamonds and a Ten of Diamonds there are nine Diamonds that would give you a flush and three Aces that would give you a top pair, giving you twelve outs in total. These however may also improve your opponents hands to better ones than yours, this is called a counterfeited out.
To compensate for this you should estimate the probability of winning with the hand should you draw it and then discount the number of outs appropriately. For example if in our example you thought you had a 3 in 4 probability of winning against one other player you would discount your outs down to 8 from 12 for the purposes of calculating your pot odds but against more players with only a 2 in 4 probability of winning down to 6.
If you are trying to draw to a hand that has already ( unbeknownst to you )been bettered by one of the other poker players you are said to be Drawing Dead or you may be trying to draw a card that would improve another's hand to a better one than yours i.e. a counterfeited out ( it isn't the winner it appears to be ).

The chances of Drawing Dead increases with more players in the hand and with a Board of two cards of the same suit where someone may draw a flush or two connected cards where someone may get a straight or even two pairs.

When calculating outs at the Flop you should discount a little because someone may draw to an even better hand at the River. There are few sure fire winners at the Turn which in itself opens up new possibilities to other players.
Players will often blame bad luck if a good hand loses on the River but really, you should account for this possibility when calculating your outs and odds. A borderline play post-flop may be better discarded to account for the chance of the River throwing someone else a better hand.